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by londons_explore 2118 days ago
The algorithm was the same one used for decades, and previously published. It pretty much says:

> You get your exam grade. If that isn't available, you get a grade set by averaging your peers from the same school, with the set of peers decided by a ranking set by your teacher. If that isn't available, you get a grade chosen by your raking in class selected from the distribution of your schools past performance.

There isn't really any fairer way that doesn't lead to grade inflation when there is an element of dishonesty/optimism on the part of teachers. We already suffer an element of grade inflation, which causes employers to say things like "You must achieve grade A* in Maths to apply for this job", and applicants from years ago before that grade was even introduced are automatically excluded.
4 comments
MaxBarraclough 2118 days ago
There's more to it. The system being used will lead to grade-inflation, [0] as there are two grade-estimation systems in use and the student gets to keep the better of the two.

The two systems used are teachers' grade predictions, and the grade-prediction algorithm.

We discussed this two weeks ago at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24191882

[0] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53810655

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nicoburns 2118 days ago
> There isn't really any fairer way that doesn't lead to grade inflation when there is an element of dishonesty/optimism on the part of teachers.

IMO it's much better just to swallow the grade inflation for a year. It will naturally reset itself next year (when exams will be sat again), and the negative effect from it are pretty minimal.

The algorithm is based on the assumption that performance of successive school years at a given school is roughly consistent, not only as an average but as a distribution. And that assumption simply doesn't hold.

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MaxBarraclough 2118 days ago
> IMO it's much better just to swallow the grade inflation for a year

You're not alone, this is the thinking they're using. [0]

> the negative effect from it are pretty minimal

That doesn't sound right. Top-flight students will be disadvantaged.

[0] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53810655

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pbhjpbhj 2118 days ago
>The algorithm is based on the assumption that performance of successive school years at a given school is roughly consistent, not only as an average but as a distribution. And that assumption simply doesn't hold. //

It seems likely to hold pretty consistently.

What's the variation?

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londons_explore 2118 days ago
> IMO it's much better just to swallow the grade inflation for a year.

When hiring, I'll be crossing off any qualifications earned in 2020. As well as the results being 'fake', the actual learning was in most cases not being done because the students knew they could chill at home and not learn. Sure, some students were studying, but as an employer I don't want to take that risk.

Would you want your doctor to be the one who messed around on TikTok for the whole year of his final exams?

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tonyedgecombe 2118 days ago
>Would you want your doctor to be the one who messed around on TikTok for the whole year of his final exams?

Well they still have six years of medical school to get through. Perhaps the dropout rate for that will be higher.

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chippy 2118 days ago
When did the algorithm get used in the past? I imagine it being applied to individuals when they had an accident and missed the exams, but did it get applied to entire schools?
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londons_explore 2118 days ago
It got applied to entire schools if for example the school had to close due to a fire/flood.

My school had it applied to one of my exam subjects for the entire year. I suspect the exam papers were lost/stole/destroyed after we took the exam, but before they were marked. Not sure how, but everyone was assigned 100%, and nobody complained...

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jonplackett 2118 days ago
The algorithm you describe seems to have nothing in common with what has happened. There are students getting many grade levels above or below what they were predicted. That makes zero sense.

Grade inflation is a completely different topic and has happened even more now that they've decided you can have whichever grade is higher out of predicted VS algorithm, grades are up something like 20% on last year.

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