[hinkley]

From ages ago when I invested in Maxwell and some others:

Density increases about 6% a year. You can predict the earliest a tech can be commercialized by using the rule of 72. If it’s claiming to double capacity, it’s 12 years out (if ever).

What you may see is corners being cut to simplify manufacturing/improve safety, so it shows up in 5 years but only increases capacity by 35%.