It doesn't seem that AI and robotics over-promise. Sure, we're not at AGI, but if you look at the potential(i.e. startups) to replace jobs, there are tons of that.
The same was said of expert systems in the 1980’s. Yes, there’s potential, but that potential hasn’t been realized yet. At least not to the point where people compare the impact of AI to the impact of semi-conductors and integrated circuits.
Maybe, given the many startups doing real work with machine learning(besides the many that just hype), it's reasonable to guess that that the potential Will be fullfiled.