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by rglullis 2117 days ago
For all the scams, ponzi schemes and outright theft that has happened in the blockchain space, I can bet a good amount of money that we as a society lose more every year to corrupt officials, subverted institutions and petty theft than we will ever lose on a system that is not run by humans.
1 comments
ivalm 2116 days ago
In total? Yes. As a fraction of total volume? Debatable.
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rglullis 2116 days ago
Some quick Google searches:

- World GDP: 142 trillion USD.

- Global cost of corruption: At least 5% of World's GDP according to WEF. [0]

- Cost of violence: estimated to be 11% of GDP in 2012 [1]

We are already at 16% and we are not even counting resources and parts of the world economy under the control of authoritarian regimes.

[0]: https://www.un.org/press/en/2018/sc13493.doc.htm

[1]https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261037678_Estimatin...

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ivalm 2116 days ago
Then for crypto you need to count what fraction of value is used for illicit activity. Here is a paper estimating its about 46% of transactions [0]. If you look at transactions that cause real economic activity (as opposed to speculation) I bet the fraction would be in the 90%+.

[0] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3102645

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rglullis 2116 days ago
You are moving the goal posts. The point initially was to show that the current socio-political institutions are no better than "Wild-West" blockchain systems to avoid fraud and misappropriation of assets.

You are now talking about how much of a "real economy" blockchain can handle, which is a different matter and a totally unfair comparison. Let's talk about a "real economy" when people are allowed to enter a work agreement and have a contract specifying a salary in crypto.

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ivalm 2116 days ago
Even without the real part I showed 44% is illegal activity, which is ore than 16%.
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rglullis 2116 days ago
It is still unrelated to the point of comparing the percentage of funds taken from its owners or misappropriated in the blockchain vs fiat. The activity may be illegal, so what? They were still desired by both participants. Bringing that to the story is still goal-post moving.
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