I think Japan shows that political leadership, of all factors, has minimal impact on COVID-19 outcome. The Japanese government did almost nothing and got away with it.
They didn't have to, because much of their population already follows "COVID-safe" practices. A large fraction wears facemasks in public and especially on public transport. They bow instead of shaking hands. They don't kiss acquaintances on the face, unlike say the custom in parts of the middle east. They're very hygienic, even taking their shoes off when entering a home. Food workers wear masks and gloves. So do taxi and bus drivers. Etc, etc...
A full lockdown on top of this would have unnecessarily harmed their economy with little medical benefit.
Japanese don't all wear masks. They all had experience wearing them but it wasn't common to see more than 5% of people wearing them at any one time until Covid
Japan is not remotely hygienic. Most hospitals and doctor's offices would be shut down by the health inspectors in the USA. I've seen all kinds of disgustingly dirty beds, cabinets, shelves, tables, and equipment in my 14 years here. Most restaurants as well. It was only covid that finally got them to cover food items at bakeries and buffets. It's easy to lose your appetite when you see kids sneezing on all the food.
And for the last 2/2.5 months the country has seemed mostly not caring about Covid. People are partying at bars, restaurants, and coffee shops and their masks are off. Clubs are even open.
Something else must explain why Covid hasn't been bigger here but it is not hygiene
> Something else must explain why Covid hasn't been bigger here but it is not hygiene
For one, Japanese are significantly healthier on average, including many of the risk factors for COVID-19. Even a slight difference in average can make a huge difference at the tail ends, that is the number of people that actually die, as well as the people that develop no symptoms whatsoever.
I've spent an accumulated 3 months in Japan over the last three years, and I have eyes, so please don't gaslight me.
Their general use of masks and gloves before the pandemic in high density urban areas is instantly noticeable. It's not 5%, it is closer to 50%.
I saw punks. Literal goth punks, with the boots and the tats and the piercings and the black clothes and the mohawks wear masks.
Before the pandemic. Not during. Before.
In America you have Karens screaming in the face of shop attendants about their "rights" and how they have a "medical condition" that prevents them wearing a mask.
So, yeah. I don't think it's a mystery that Japan did better than the US.
I agree with this entirely. I've been to Japan and can confirm it isn't noticeably more clean than most rich cities and certainly not as clean as Singapore (for example)
I've dug into this in some depth and there is no convincing explanation. Even "luck" (which is a much underestimated factor in initial breakout dynamics) doesn't seem to explain it - unless they are persistently lucky somehow.
There's something else going on and no one really knows what it is. There is plenty of speculation, but nothing that is even close to an accepted explanation.
I happened to see a chart showing that among wealthy countries, the US is at the top for obesity and Japan is at the bottom. Just a correlated random fact that nobody knows the cause of either. Maybe something about fish consumption?
There are huge numbers of significant demographic differences between Japan and the US.
It's true that obesity is a factor in COVID death dates (as it is for most things) but there are plenty of places with lower levels of obesity with significantly higher death rates. Singapore and South Korea are better comparisons here and the death rate is significantly higher.
As for fish consumption - it's difficult to think of a reason why that would be significant for a respiritory disease like COVID. It wasn't for SARS.
Yeah, this post sounds fake and wrong and should be rejected. Japan is most likely the most hygienic country on earth (okay, Singapore may beat them). Sure you can find some backwater somewhere in Japan with worse hygiene than the USA, but the overwhelming majority of that nation has levels of hygiene which make even the cleanest parts of America look like a pig pen.
Are you serious about Singapore being hygienic? Ever been to hawker stands in Singapore? Ever visit Little India on a Sunday? Ever walk though the food section of Mustafas? Especially the eggs isle? And yes I know they are inspected.
These are all great post hoc arguments, but we could equally well list factors that point the other way. They have very dense cities and packed public transport. They have a culture of presenteeism that discourages sick leave and working from home. They have one of the most elderly-heavy populations in the world. Etc...
Regardless, it does seem like GP's point is correct. The political leadership isn't necessarily what makes a difference: it's all of the other factors.
A full lockdown on top of this would have unnecessarily harmed their economy with little medical benefit.