[hundreddaysoff]

How will these borrowed dollars be paid back short of real non-BS US economic expansion, which as I understand it is not presently occurring? If they are not actually paid back but just kicked down the road, are they still effectively borrowed, or are they effectively inflationary?

Not trying to troll, just trying to get a handle on the basics here.

[dlp211]

So you make a good point. Yes, borrowed dollars CAN become inflationary. We will see this when PPP loans become grants. There are however, also deflationary effects happening at the same time due to the current pandemic...so which will dominate is hard to tell right now.

We are also experiencing supply and demand shocks, so we are experiencing higher prices in certain goods, but this is not inflation, we would expect that prices would return to normal when the constraint of the virus is removed.

I have a hypothesis that modern supply chains combined with weak labor make consumer inflation basically a thing of the past and we worry far too much about inflation that won't materialize in our normally operating global economy.