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by l_davis 2115 days ago
Not surprising. Haven't seen much if anything of him in the media since he announced Japan's complete victory over Covid 19 right before things started reopening.
1 comments

Just to clarify, that its' definitely not been a complete victory.

More like a nice display of "selective testing" so the numbers always look acceptable.

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html Publicly available test results show active cases slowly surge higher than the point when they started shutting down. The numbers hardly look acceptable.

If Japan didn't have the pandemic under control, would there not be a surge of deaths, particularly in the vulnerable age groups? https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/12/national/tokyo-...

The death rate has a lot to do with who gets infected, elderly in Japan tend to be far healthier and in better care.

Another possibility is that those deaths are simply not counted. Japan did notoriously little testing in the beginning. If a couple of 90 year olds die a bit sooner, few would suspect foul play.

I don't believe this statement is accurate, there are a lot of elderly who aren't in great shape in good care also.

I think what is accurate is that there is a lot of shame in Japanese society and there are many accounts of even healthcare workers being ostracized and bullied for catching it.

What I believe is more accurate is that it's swept under the rug in Japan more than other countries.

If someone elderly in a family dies from Covid19, it's easier to not bother requesting a test so you don't have to deal with the shame of having it in your family if it comes back positive.

I'm not that against the lenient testing strategy, just don't think it's an accurate depiction of what's going on in Japan.I do think it's having a negative impact economically because people never truly feel safe as they don't understand the risks well enough to enjoy themselves.

Japan just passed the peak of the second wave.

It seems like the situation is slowly improving, and is on the good slope, but the epidemic is very much still alive.

I always look at the "要入院" (people needing hospitalization) curve on the graph, rather than the "新規" (new cases) curve, because it cannot be manipulated as easily by changes in testing policies. I use the following site:

https://newsdigest.jp/pages/coronavirus/

I appreciate the enthusiasm, but look at how few tests are being done in Tokyo though?

https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/

It's tiny, Tokyo, often not even breaking 4000 in a city of 14 million.

Not to mention it's difficult to get tested without meeting certain _criteria_ or pay 30000Y. I know people in Aus and the US countries who have been tested multiple times by now for free.

The testing is hopeless, the results are tallied up by faxes sent around from different wards in Tokyo and are delayed by a few days. Really, it's a pretty sad state of affairs.

I think it's nice that whatever numbers Japan is presenting are on the down trend, but the narrative is also tightly controlled no one knows what to really believe.

I hate too the testing policy in Japan.

But this policy alone cannot explain a supposed anomaly in the count of "requiring hospitalization" covid patients. That's because I assume that the persons with covid with a health state that requires hospitalization will always be tested.

What do you think would be a plausible bias? Maybe less aggravating factors among infected Japanese people?

I do think it's likely that mostly younger people make up the majority of new cases, that's probably a large part of it.

Then many young people seem to wear masks in public (at work etc) so they just don't easily spread it to elderly? Who knows...

I was being sarcastic; should not have assumed that would have been understood.

Certainly room for improvement regarding Japan's Covid's management strategy, but I live in the US so shouldn't really throw stones from my glass house.