[helen___keller]

The only thing I have to contribute to this is a mention that social connectivity should realistically be considered a function of covid caseload (or more generally - community confidence). That picture of the big ol' party in Wuhan is a great example (although china also follows up with massive mandatory lockdowns whenever new hotspots are developing - a "luxury" we don't have in the west)

This is the reason there will be second, third, Nth, waves with a mere 20, 30% immunity

[gloriosoc]

Call me an optimist but I think the public can handle the nuance of cases have dropped but still don't throw a crazy party until they are 100% gone or everyone is vaccinated. Also levels are 20-30% now but will continue to rise throughout the fall because there still are new cases and transmission even if RT<1.

[soganess]

I really want to believe this. It neatly lines itself up with my worldview and afford individuals the agency of being smart enough to do what is right 99% of the time while also allowing for the freedom to make the rare "less than safe choice" in situations that warrant it. That is the world I want to live in.

-BUT- I think to get there, we are going to need some serious education on this matter that actually penetrates the politics that have grown to dominate the pandemic. I don't think most people see it as "containment vs keep clam and hope everything is okay." Opting instead to see it as r-v-l.

To be clear, I don't blame anyone for thinking in those terms, that is the narrative being presented. That said, I do ask that any theory hinging on "people are able to handle nuance" provide some evidence for the claim that can be directly applied to the now. In a world where individuals leer at each other for not wearing masks in wide open outdoor spaces, while others yell inside of Walmart about the constitution, it is hard to have belief in that claim.

[gloriosoc]

I agree with your first two points whole heartedly. But I think we got into a r-v-l place where the public has lost all trust BY paternalism. Trust means giving people the truth. And my theory doesn't hinge on people behaving responsibly at all. If people are irresponsible- this ends sooner with more death. The theory is the same either way- the timeline and number of deaths just change a bit.