[zxwx]

In 70 years of physics we went from the photoelectric effect to the Standard Model. But for the last 50ish, it remains the standard.

70 years from the first flight to the concorde and the saturn 5. But in the 50 years since, improvements in aerospace have been incremental.

In 75 years we went from ENIAC to TFLOPS in a laptop. But looks like that breakneck pace is slowing down sharply. We've been doing AI nearly as long, and have gone from say, Eliza to GPT-3. A huge advance, but not AGI.

A lot can happen in 50 years, but we've already had our first 70ish years with AI without an AGI breakthrough.

To the definition of AGI in the link, maybe a hundred million data scientists can hone a million models, one per "economically viable" task, and start chipping away at the 95% of the economy target, but till now I'd wager AI has put many more people to work than out of it.

[dwaltrip]

You have a good point. However, to be a bit pedantic, fully reusable rockets, which we are very much knocking on the door of, are a major stepwise improvement.

It just goes to show that technological advancement can happen rather unpredictably.