[stuhlmueller]

Alex Irpan's post inspired the AGI timelines discussion at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k which shows 12 people's timelines as probability distributions over future years and their reasoning behind the distributions.

(I work on Elicit, the tool used in the thread.)

[1wheel]

Have you tried plotting the CDFs? Might be easier to read than the overlaid areas.

[stuhlmueller]

Good idea. We'll integrate that into Elicit in a few weeks. In the meantime, here's a Colab that shows the CDFs: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1pl3fIaeIKIS77IDM_rn...