[jariel]

Probably more like 14-20 day window and much greater than 2x incidence as loads of people show little or no symptoms.

Once the expected value starts to creep over 1, then that's enough to infect quite a lot of people. It's not too much past that to expect that one of the infected has 'underlying condition' and risking death.

In British Coloumbia there's been a big outbreak due to a single gathering in the interior, notably (shamefully) attended by Medics and Doctors.

It's a little risky.

It's just not the time to have major gatherings, but at least this one is in the service of the science of 'stopping it' - which is better than most places are doing.