[p1esk]

We do know when it might not appear

No, we don't. The progress in AI has been exponential. Anything exponential is hard for humans to estimate. This is perfectly illustrated by statements like "decades of AI research tells us ... that we aren't close". Every significant AI breakthrough has caught most AI experts by surprise (chess, IBM Watson, Imagenet results in 2012, Atari games, Go, GPT-2/3). If you made a poll of AI researchers a year or two before each one of these breakthroughs has happened, you would get estimates that would have been overly pessimistic in their timelines. We had no idea that scaling the original transformer would lead to GPT-3, and we don't have any idea of what's going to happen if we scale GPT-3 another factor of 100x.

if Google had AGI

We have no idea what an "AGI" would look like. More precisely, any ideas you might have about it probably came from Hollywood. For example, you seem to believe AGI will be superintelligent, even though it simply needs to be as intelligent as a regular human to be considered "AGI". It might be superintelligent, but we don't know.

Your statement is non-falsifiable

Relax. We are not proving a theorem here. Yes, it's unlikely Google has AGI. But I wouldn't be surprised if it does (ok, maybe a little surprised). But I would be very surprised if we don't have AGI within next 20 years. To me it's more likely we have it already than we don't have it within our lifetime.