[jmorrison]

It appears to be hard to predict the effect of the introduction of even a single weapon/platform into a complex conflict which consists of many, qualitatively different weapons/platforms. One of my career-defining "Aha" moments is described on page 19 of https://www.iitsec.org/-/media/sites/iitsec/link-attachments... in the section entitled "Forward Area Air Defense (FAADS)."

While I do not believe I am at liberty to provide details (even lo so many years later), I was witness to the first use of (arguably) VR to prototype and introduce a new weapons platform into a combined arms battlefield simulation. The short version is that on Monday morning, despite all the deep thinking done by smart people about how this would all work out, none of us came close to predicting what turned out to be the net effects of the new system as seen by Friday. I was there in my capacity as a nerd simply to keep the blinking lights blinking (vs the capacity of a combat domain expert), but watching the whole thing unfold was a mind-blowing demonstration of the "Law of Unanticipated Consequences."

None of us are as smart as we think we are. We are no smarter than our adversaries. The world is more complex than either of us can know.