We were. It's doubtful that we still are. GDP growth has clearly popped back above negative for the third quarter, which will break the two quarters technical requirement. Most economic readings right now are strong, from manufacturing to retail to job creation.
It's more like we're in the equivalent of the first or second inning of the post great recession recovery now.
This recession isn't broad, it's unusual in its disjointed hit. It's primarily hammering lower income labor and specific types of small businesses. 40% of low income households lost jobs just in the March and April shutdown. That's where most of the job damage was at:
CNBC "Households with income below $40,000 were hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic. Almost 40% were laid off or furloughed by early April, according to the Federal Reserve."
Jobs in the top 2/3 have largely been unscathed, which is why the broad housing market continues humming along in most regards (whereas housing got smashed in every way in the great recession). It's also why hiring has been so ferocious and unemployment has recovered dramatically faster than during the great recession; it's specifically because the context isn't all encompassing. The great recession didn't spare the middle class and higher income groups nearly so much, it was a very broad recession.
Which all makes sense, this wasn't a normal recession, it was a temporary forced shutdown of some parts of the economy due to a pandemic (further, not all of the economy was shuttered during the second quarter, the majority of the economy kept functioning throughout the pandemic).
A thousand people are dying of COVID-19 every day, it’s not a normal recession, but pretending it’s over is silly. The markets have likely priced in a second stimulus which at this point probably depends on a different president.
It's more like we're in the equivalent of the first or second inning of the post great recession recovery now.
This recession isn't broad, it's unusual in its disjointed hit. It's primarily hammering lower income labor and specific types of small businesses. 40% of low income households lost jobs just in the March and April shutdown. That's where most of the job damage was at:
CNBC "Households with income below $40,000 were hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic. Almost 40% were laid off or furloughed by early April, according to the Federal Reserve."
Jobs in the top 2/3 have largely been unscathed, which is why the broad housing market continues humming along in most regards (whereas housing got smashed in every way in the great recession). It's also why hiring has been so ferocious and unemployment has recovered dramatically faster than during the great recession; it's specifically because the context isn't all encompassing. The great recession didn't spare the middle class and higher income groups nearly so much, it was a very broad recession.
Which all makes sense, this wasn't a normal recession, it was a temporary forced shutdown of some parts of the economy due to a pandemic (further, not all of the economy was shuttered during the second quarter, the majority of the economy kept functioning throughout the pandemic).