[gizmo]

According to the filing Asana has 1.2m paying users. Each user is worth maybe $1000. That puts Asana at 1.2bn.

The median forward revenue multiple for public enterprise SaaS companies is 10x, and with 2020 revenues of 150mn that results in a 3bn market cap.

A third data point is they raised 75M 16 months ago at a $900m post money valuation. With growth at 100% annually that puts their current valuation at 2.5bn or so.

Three different 30 second valuation strategies that result in the same ballpark numbers.

[user5994461]

Their business plan is $30 a month, so I'm tempted to say each paying user is definitely not worth $1000.

Given their revenues of 142M and 1.2M paid users, that's an average a tad below $120 a year per user, which would actually be less than their cheapest plan. That doesn't add up, it smells of free trials counted as paid users.

[molsongolden]

Trying to calculate revenue per user in this way assumes that they started the year with 1.2M paid users.

Napkin math, assuming the user acquisition was evenly distributed throughout the year, came out to maybe $160/user.

$1,000 LTV would mean that each user stays a user for ~6 years.

I'm not sure if that's a reasonable assumption or not. Just sharing numbers because I was curious how much the average user might be paying, after seeing the discussion above.

[gizmo]

Asana's pricing is per user per month - https://asana.com/pricing

[tims33]

Many of those 1.2M users are on large corporate deals that are at a small fraction of list price. This is a common phenomenon in SaaS.

[ummonk]

That 3rd point is outdated, as you have more recent valuation data - the stock recently traded at 13.04-25.00 price, with 151M shares outstanding and 33M in unexercised options.

[tims33]

I'm not sure where you get $1000 per user. Is that a CLTV number? The amount of money put into the company by Dustin himself, the declining efficiency metrics (costs increasing faster than revenue), and the 10x number you mention points to a valuation more around $1.5B.

[nv-vn]

Why not model based on expected future cash flows? That's basically the gold standard in finance and what you'd expect most investors to follow.