[tunesmith]

For anyone with a history of probabilistic predictions, the goal is to be well-calibrated. For predictions that have 70% likelihood, you want to be right 70% of the time. 90% likelihood, you want to be right 90% of the time. There's a mathematical way to analyze an entire set of predictions and determine how well-calibrated that set of predictions is. Silver claims 538's predictions are well-calibrated.

There are also tools and websites out there that people can use to make predictions and track their own calibration over time. They're pretty fun in terms of encouraging one's own sense of rationality.