[panarky]

So you're saying that 538 wanted an uncertain outcome and hacked the model design and parameters to deliver the outcome they wanted?

[throwaway2245]

I'm not saying this was intentional, but there is a very high incentive for them to deliver this type of outcome.

There is not enough data to back-test their model on a single election which happens every 4 years, so the claim that a 60% prediction is fundamentally very different from a 95% prediction is statistically dubious.