[SpicyLemonZest]

(1) I certainly agree with. But Marcus doesn't claim skepticism about GPT-3s intelligence; he claims that his evaluation metrics definitively show it doesn't understand the text it outputs or know anything about the world.

(2) is, I think, a misunderstanding. People who believe GPT-3 is producing intelligent answers generally believe it can represent causal relationships.

[abiro]

Fair points. For the record, re 2:

The GPT family of models (and all neural networks for that matter) can estimate P(X | Y), but have no way of computing whether X -> Y or X <- Y.

[Veedrac]

A computation can represent causality without being made of causality-neurons.