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by sdenton4 2131 days ago
"never factor in things..."

Good luck measuring those.

Consider this on the individual poller level. Every four years you get a new batch of pundit driven ideas about what "really" driving the voters. Suppose you add a question that's meant to magically reveal hidden voter preferences that are hidden by shame. What do the results of that question mean for the bottom line? Well, you're probably going to need multiple election cycle to find out. And by the time you do, the pundit have a new pile of bullshit for you to implement.

Now take it up a level. You've got a bunch of pollsters of caring predictive quality. Let them figure out what works best and include an estimate of their quality in how you process their results. I have no idea is pollster X's new question about cheese preferences is predictive, and honestly neither do they until a couple more cycles pass. All you can do is wight by past performance.

KISS wins in these situations.