[seanmcdirmid]

> Some of the other models for the last election were really bad. Giving something like a 95-98% chance to Hillary was arguably a fundamental failure.

The page is still up, you don’t have to pull that number from memory. At the end, it was also nowhere near 95-98%. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[CrazyStat]

By "other models" I think he means models other than 538's, several of which did put the probability of Clinton winning at over 95%.

[xapata]

Why would estimating a 95% chance for Hillary be a fundamental failure? 5% likelihood things happen often. You've never rolled a 20 on a 20-sided die?

[patmorgan23]

Yep the odds of anyone person getting hit by lightning in a year is 1 in 700,000 yet every year several people are struck.