[hammock]

The author makes the point nicely at the front: "because the nature of the work is creating."

I'm not a developer but I can confidently say that it's not just developers - NO ONE can estimate time when it comes to creative work. I use the term creative loosely, it could be anything from developing a business strategy, to crafting a story, to art directing an original visual, to writing code for a novel problem.

The problem is the same one that makes it difficult to say "when will we have a cure for Parkinson's," "when will we have fusion power," "when will we discover a viable alternative energy"? You often see estimates like 20 years, 40 years, 50 years - but properly interpreted, these aren't actual estimates of the amount of time it will take, but rather like a proxy for a much more probabilistic, uncertainty-oriented notion.

[ashleymoran]

Hi hammock, thanks for the comment (I'm the author). For some reason you've reminded me of the motivation factors Dan Pink talks about. I wonder if trying to commit to estimates makes our creativity degrade in the same way as paying cash bonuses?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc