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by 1kGarand 2137 days ago
Simple math below.

NY has 1,300 deaths per million, and NJ has 1,800 deaths per million currently. Let's take the average and say that they reached herd immunity with 1,500 deaths per million.

Great.

For the entire US (320 million), that implies 480,000 deaths before reaching herd immunity.

Does 480,000 deaths sound good to anyone?
3 comments
gloriosoc 2136 days ago
It's not good, no. But I am not suggesting that this was a good plan. I am just saying it is the plan that is happening. I think the US government took a really bad route in handling the pandemic. New Zealand had the best model imo- shut down hard and early and eradicated. Hardly any deaths. Were able to reopen in 6 weeks.
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skolsuper 2136 days ago
Does the US approach mean countries like New Zealand need to stay isolated until a vaccine is found? Or would herd immunity eventually eradicate the virus in US?
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gloriosoc 2136 days ago
They should definitely have anyone abroad strictly quarantine for at least 14 days upon entering the country. Herd immunity would slow it to a crawl but it seems like it could pop back up in odd pockets of previously unexposed people. We also still don't know how long immunity will last- scientists are hopeful that it will last until a vaccine is produced but that's not a guarantee.
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skolsuper 2134 days ago
Thanks
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s1artibartfast 2136 days ago
It doesn't sound good, but I think it would be a attractive.

The current death toll is around 170K, so we are talking a 300k difference.

Deaths associated with loss of work and restricted access to healthcare will certainly exceed that by the time we lift restrictions. So the sooner we get to 480k, the better.

That said, I don't have much confidence in the 480k number.

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SomeoneFromCA 2136 days ago
"Deaths associated with loss of work and restricted access to healthcare will certainly exceed that by the time we lift restrictions". Any proofs?
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randyrand 2136 days ago
3-4 million people die a year in the USA. So maybe this is just the normal death rate?

In the bay area only 3% of deaths are due to covid.

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maxerickson 2136 days ago
Epidemiologists these days regularly talk about excess deaths (from Covid-19). Those are deaths that exceed the expected (or normal) death rate.
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