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by lazide 2136 days ago
Best data I've seen is 6x (.63% IFR). And due to lack of existing immunity from the Flu which keeps the flu at less than 10% of the population/yr, we're looking at a dramatic death toll.

That people don't want to believe it, without evidence to the contrary, just makes them solidly into the wishful thinking category - and likely spreaders that will inevitably get someone killed.

5 comments

Even at 6x, it still very much comes up for debate. Most reasonable people can agree that a .01% IFR is not worth shutting everything down for, and that a 50% IFR is definitely worth shutting everything down for. Where you fall on this spectrum determines whether someone will call you a wishful thinker or not. Everyone believes their own opinion is the best.
>Most reasonable people can agree

Is this just a way of saying that people who don't agree with you aren't reasonable? What do we do with those people's opinions if they are the majority?

No, it is setting a wide range and excluding the extremes -- that is, people who aren't even within spitting distance of a good faith debate. 0.01% IFR would be 1/10th of the seasonal flu. And 50% would be up there with bubonic plague. I feel pretty comfortable with my definition of 'reasonable people.'
so what happens when all the people you think are unreasonable think you're the one being unreasonable? How do you deal with that?
How do you think we're going to get immunity like we have with the flu, if everyone is hiding in their basement?
You don't need immunity if you exterminate the virus, which some countries have done..
That's ridiculous. Maybe they're "exterminated" it temporarily. There's absolutely no way the entire world will be rid of it if we ever expect to get international travel back.
SARS-CoV-1 was exterminates wasn’t it? You been worried about Ebola or TB recently? We’ve gotten really far with some muscle. But for some reason lots is ppl gave up on Cov19 real fast.
i dont think you know what the word exterminate means.

Smallpox is the only disease in history that has been eradicated

Lol okay I used poetic license. The point is we had international travel and was not under lockdown due to these other diseases because they're under control. Maybe the ship has sailed for C19 but just saying it's possible.
In addition to IFR we should also consider the rate at which a virus spreads. COVID-19 appears to more powerful than regular flu on this front as well.
Do you have a link to the data you're looking at?
Where do you stand on the BLM protests/riots? I assume that is haram too?