[cma]

SpaceX has claimed we will definitely have point to point rocket travel in 7-8 years, in production, for between the cost of a coach and business class ticket [1]. Long haul airlines will begin getting phased out according to them.

Since reliability is going to fundamentally change by that much in order to have massive passenger rockets replacing jet travel, Blue Origin has nothing to worry about. There is a magic invention that is going to completely change the game, and it won't be patented since those aren't worth doing according to Musk.

Musk also said a robo taxi network is coming online this year. He said it will need a bit of winter training but would have that integrated by the end of the year as well. Full level 5, all conditions and scenarios a human can drive in[2]. Steering wheel can be taken off afterwards. Recent news says it is going to be several weeks before they have any sort of object permanence implemented/temporal picture of the scene, but apparently that is all part of the plan.

Unless Tesla and SpaceX have completely alien tech, I'm confident Bezos could do the 6 launches by 6 years.

[1] https://www.vox.com/2018/4/11/17227036/flight-spacex-gwynne-...

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE

[valuearb]

Musk has laid out some pretty big visions he hasn’t yet achieved (see Mars, colonization) and doesn’t always meet his aggressive deadlines, but he’s actually accomplishing a great deal. An rocket with 80 commercial launches, landing and reusing hypersonic first stages (and now fairings), the worlds first full flow staged combustion engine, the most powerful rocket in the world (Falcon Heavy), StarLink with already 655 satellites, and that’s just SpaceX accomplishments.

What has BO done other than land a suborbital rocket that doesn’t achieve more than tiny fraction of orbital velocity? They haven’t even had a person ride it yet, let alone a paying customer on board.

[cma]

If we can start replacing long-haul passenger planes with rockets that soon, I feel that BO can launch the sats or Amazon can pay someone else to launch them. Unless there is something going on edging into magical that is going to put SpaceX that far ahead that there would be people taking rockets for regularly commercial flight, not thrill seeking space tourism, price-competitive with commercial flight and reliable.

[valuearb]

There are a lot of steps remaining for SpaceX to start a long haul point to point passenger service on Earth. First, Starship has to meet its safety and performance aspirations, that’s at least a decades worth of work. The first passengers won’t be for a couple years, and they will only be astronauts and explorers for at least a decade, until Raptor has a long history of trustworthy flights. Then there is the government approvals, offshore launch and landing sites with high volume transport to/from them, etc. Point to Point might be twenty years away.

So yes, its reasonable BO will be launching payloads within the same time frame, 10-20 years.

[cma]

They say in that article it will start without a doubt by 2028.