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by api 2137 days ago
Add to this the fact that governments (at least in the US, and in many other countries) have made it clear that housing won't be allowed to fall. This combined with money printing means the price is almost guaranteed to rise.

The reason is that for most homeowners their home equity is the majority of their savings, and homeowners vote in higher proportion than renters (on average). Any politician that allows home values to fall too much will be facing the end of their career.

Under these conditions the only way housing will fall in a lasting way is if something so terrible happens to the economy that... well... you'll have bigger problems than housing.

Housing is fundamentally broken and very hard to fix due to vested interests all over the place. "Housing cannot simultaneously be affordable and a good investment," and we've clearly decided that housing is a financial instrument first and a place to live second.

There is one way out of the housing price trap: telework plus ubiquitous broadband via things like 5G and Starlink. That could allow people to escape the housing trap by locating away from price hotspots. If you simply must live in a big city this won't work for you, but keep in mind that you could always live somewhere more rural and visit big cities any time you please.

3 comments

> There is one way out of the housing price trap: telework plus ubiquitous broadband via things like 5G and Starlink.

I don’t buy that. People don’t like to live in cities primarily because of jobs, but because living in cities is fun. People like to be close to other people, exchange with others and their community.

Living in a small town sounds depressing to me, no matter how fast the internet connection might be.

Maybe if you create your own commune, bring in a social circle from the city. But that has a tendency to fall apart.

> People don’t like to live in cities primarily because of jobs, but because living in cities is fun.

This is mostly only true of younger childless people. Once you have kids you can forget about having any fun for the next 15 years or so. And after that, well, how many 45 year olds do you see in nightclubs?

Fun is more than nightclubs. Where I live, I have fun just by walking the streets, admiring the varied and pretty architecture (granted, I live in Poland), seeing the various characters which walk the streets, eating/having snacks at the many food outlets available etc. In a rural setting, you exchange all that for easy access to a lot of nature.
It's your choice. Trouble is that if you stay in a city under the current housing finance regime it will be a lot harder to build wealth. A lot will get eaten by rent or mortgage.
How has it been made clear that housing won't be allowed to fall? The held-low interest rates?
The more they keep the artificial prices, the harder will be the fall. You'll see that, and 1929 would be a child's play compared to that.