Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by grellas 2126 days ago
After being one of the top-rated commenters on HN for some years, I have not commented in a long while. For what it is worth, here is my two cents on a topic - a wealth tax - that may seem on the surface to be benign but that is in fact just the opposite.

Silicon Valley was founded in a spirit of freedom and flexibility but that spirit is clearly and dangerously on the wane insofar as the political environment surrounding the Valley is concerned.

By the 1970s, American enterprise was in decline, a victim of the "big government/big business/big labor" trends glamorized by establishment types of that day. What this did was take away choice and flexibility.

Tech changed all that and it did so from the heart of Silicon Valley. Tech arose from a spirit of freedom and flexibility. Founders would get an idea and would have countless ways of experimenting with what they could do with it with the aim of building a venture. Many of the most wildly successful ventures came out of nowhere. No central committee could have planned for them. No overlords of big business could have had the imagination or risk-taking fortitude to push them at the expense of their established cash cows of that day. No union could comfortably impose rigid work rules onto such amorphous ventures (the first thing Intel workers did even after the company succeeded was to reject unionization). No minimum wage or overtime rules applied. Benefits packages of the type widely deployed in the analog-based large businesses of that day were unheard of.

Regulators and taxers of that era continually tried to realize their vision of locking people into situations by which they would have guaranteed security, ossifying the mature businesses over which they had control, but tech simply outran them through innovation. And, in time, upended them by disrupting their industries through innovation and risk-taking.

Today, the spirit of Silicon Valley has changed and is yielding to a belief system by which the overlords of politics believe they can dictate outcomes that will give people locked-in security forever. Want to do something as an independent to earn a livelihood? Sorry, AB5 forbids that and will penalize the hell out of any venture that seeks to use fleelancing and flexibility as a foundation for innovation and growth. Your choice to act an an independent is frozen out by dictates that, if you act at all to make a living, you must do it within rigid systems that guarantee minimum compensation, regulate overtime, prescribe minimum guaranteed benefits, and the like. If this kills opportunities, no problem: there will be other rules that guarantee basic income, limit the rent you have to pay, and otherwise regulate society such that people are guaranteed a risk-free existence courtesy of decrees enacted by political proclamation.

This new mindset is precisely the one of the 1970s-era leaders who managed to choke off innovation and growth in old-line businesses and gave a massive opening to tech innovators, particularly those in Silicon Valley.

pg's modeling of the effects of a wealth tax is spot on. And it confirms that such a tax is an innovation-killing idea that would destroy the spirit of Silicon Valley. Of course, tech innovation will not cease. It will just move elsewhere to escape the tax. Europe in the 1990s had a couple of dozen or more countries that imposed wealth taxes. Today it has three, if I recall. There is a reason for that. It is a highly pernicious tax that kills enterprise and that veers from a capitalist (even progressive) philosophy into one that is directly of a Marxist/communist variety that has left so many nations in rubble once fully implemented. Smart, innovative people are not going to stick around for the con game. They will leave.

I have watched Silicon Valley grow and flourish for decades now and have been directly involved in working with thousands of entrepreneurs who have been a part of it. There have been a lot of political changes over those decades but one thing remained constant: the foundational thinking in California always assumed a capitalistic structure. Once that is abandoned, Silicon Valley will be no more.

I know that the vast majority of HN'ers are progressive in their thinking and we all can have our own ideas about what makes for a good and just society. I am not commenting on that here.

There is a line that cannot be crossed, however, without killing the Valley itself and all that it stands for. The wealth tax clearly crosses that line and, if things are allowed to go that way, the consequences may not be what you expect them to be. It doesn't take much to switch from a tax of .4% on assets over $30M (bad as that is in itself) to a tax of a much higher rate on a much lower threshold of assets. Once that monster is unleased, who knows where it will go. It will be fundamental transformation of the Valley, and not a good one.

As I said, just my two cents.

11 comments

I think you are forgetting the major difference between now and 70s - massive wealth concentration, and the complete destruction of sustainable middle class jobs. Look at the pandemic. 40 mn people were unemployed, but billionaire wealth continued to grow. Most people in the US are one paycheck away from bankruptcy. Poverty rates among minority population have soared, and the impact is starkly reflected in COVID related death rates. One can sit in an ivory tower and deflect all societies problems to be taken care of by some mythical concept of freedom. But more and more people are questioning why wealth in the US is not trickling down. And these are very valid questions today that should really span beyond political lines
People can question all they want about why wealth is not trickling down but that doesn’t change the underlying analysis or outcomes around why this is a bad idea. You may get income redistribution and trickle down but if it changes the underlying systems that create wealthy, those same people will just end up poorer but more equitable.
Is there any evidence for that assertion ? I mean you take any European country such as Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Switzerland, UK, and even France. Where taxes are remarkably high, and definitely far fewer billionaires per capita. Europe has better health outcomes, better income equality, and extremely low poverty rate compared to the US. [1] [1] https://data.oecd.org/netherlands.htm
Note: Income inequality [0] and poverty rate [1] are in-distribution relative measures, not absolute measures. You could “improve” these measures by making everyone worse off (i.e. a Pareto worsening).

[0] https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm

[1] https://data.oecd.org/inequality/poverty-rate.htm

Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and Iceland all have more billionaires per capita than the US.
Europe is not the egalitarian utopia most Americans seem to think it is. Germany's wealth gini coefficient is 79.1. The US is 85.9 (100% is complete inequality, higher is worse).

Sweden and Norway are both in the 80s also -- two countries people in the US constantly point to as places where things are "fair". But in terms of wealth (and income) inequality, it's not that much different.

https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/wealth-distr...

Well in defense of the European countries, the wealth might be unequally distributed here as well, but you also don't need wealth/money for education, health care, child care and/or pension.
And both Switzerland and Norway have a wealth tax.
True, though in the case of Switzerland there is no capital gains tax
Your answer reminds me of the book I am currently reading: https://www.amazon.com/Growing-New-Economy-Environmental-Des...

It reflects on free markets and the failure of trickle down economics.

Sadly, it was flagged as too controversial, and was taken down from Amazon for a limited period, but it's now available again.

You point towards regulation as the culprit of innovation being killed; I wonder how you are not aware most people live pay-check to pay-check, and therefore can not adopt the risk necessary to be entrepreneurial?

We all, live in an extremely divided economic landscape - the _most_ divided in modern history.

I do not understand how this is not a focus of your argument. With this in mind, if our government offers support to the individual; we can innovate freely without imposing further employer regulation on private businesses. In a globalist society, where jobs are exported to the most exploitative country, this seems to be a promising solution.

The savings rate in China is 40%. Economists have observed a negative correlation between the personal savings rate and the availability of a social safety net. In societies where the state does not provide a substantial safety net, people adapt by saving high percentage of their income, and this is why the savings rate in China is so high.

Incomes are higher today than during the periods in American history when economic growth rates were highest, so the fact that more people are living paycheck to paycheck is more likely explained by the establishment of a comprehensive social safety net reducing the incentive to build up personal savings.

Social welfare spending has massively increased over the course of the last several decades.

You're going from one extreme to another. Starting your own business is not the only alternative to working for big business. There is a remarkable difference between working at Lockheed Martin and working at SpaceX, for example. One is arguably a lot more innovative than the other. And you do know that politicians are responsible for globalism right? It can be curtailed as easily as it was expanded.
Inequality in your country has risen dramatically the past 30 years. That's what your legislators are trying to address. A lot of value is created in the early stages. Should that be exempt? Remember, companies don't exist primarily to pay back investors, their first objective is to contribute to society.

My €0.05

Undue† wealth inequality is tied to the sort of rent-seeking that this tax will enable. Given the inordinate ways to classify and exempt movable property from a wealth tax (even greater than the existing insanity in income taxes), it is essentially inevitable that this will invite more lobbying and corruption, net more rent-seeking, and compound existing inequality.

† vs. inevitable/natural wealth inequality, associated with real disparities in productivity and the nature of sampling individuals on a widening curve

This is sadly true, but we have to fix our libertine taxing authority and corporate law in any case. These are assets that are not adding to overall societal welfare, so I would rather criminalize and tax the thing society needs to change rather than the gains to productivity being taxed in the current system.
> Remember, companies don't exist primarily to pay back investors, their first objective is to contribute to society.

If a company does pay back investors, that almost always means that it has contributed to society on net. Let me explain.

If people don't pay for a company's products, that company will go out of business. Unlike a government, a company has little coercive power. If I refuse to use Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg can't send men with guns to my home and force me to create an account. Even companies that benefit from network effects (such as social media companies) must build compelling products that people want to use.

Now one could claim that most people are mistaken in what they want, or that they lack the knowledge to understand what they're really getting into, but that would also mean that you disagree with the notion of democracy (since those same mistaken, ignorant people will pick the policies and leaders that control our lives).

There are only a few ways that a company can capture value without creating it. The first is fraud, which is illegal. The second is coercion. That means using violence (or the threat of violence), blackmail, or if they lean upon the state to coerce people. This is usually illegal, though there are some exceptions such as patent trolls. The third way is if they create negative externalities. For example: if I buy a car from a car company, I am better off but everyone else is slightly worse off from the pollution I create and the increased risk of being run over. The way we solve externalities is through insurance and taxes. If I'm required to have liability insurance for my vehicle, and I'm required to pay taxes based on how much my vehicle pollutes, then I pay the costs of my externalities and am properly incentivized to alter my behavior. Perhaps I drive less than I otherwise would. Perhaps I buy a vehicle that pollutes less.

As long as we ensure that parties pay the cost of the externalities they create, we can be confident that any profitable firms are creating more value than they capture. That means they're a net benefit to society.

Of course if we follow this logic, this means that some rather ridiculous firms are beneficial to society. Is World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc beneficial to society? As far as I can tell, WWE is a way to get people to pay outrageous amounts of money to watch roided-out actors pretend to fight. But if WWE pays for their externalities (such as actors' medical bills), who am I to judge? Everyone involved knows what they're getting into and consents. So what if I think the whole enterprise is a colossal waste of time and resources? I'm sure those people think the same of some of my interests.

The alternative to this is a world in which the majority decides for everyone what is beneficial to society or not. Considering the competence of the average voter (and the competence of our government), I'd prefer to err on the side of non-intervention.

> If I refuse to use Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg can't send men with guns to my home and force me to create an account. Even companies that benefit from network effects (such as social media companies) must build compelling products that people want to use.

If this was 2008 you may have an argument. It isn't and in 2020 I have no choice about using Facebook. Even if I delete my account I am still their product just by virtue of being on the web. Or existing.

Last year I was tagged in a photo from a camping trip by a person I met on that trip. That person's brother's girlfriend used to work with a guy I know from a totally different circle of people. He asked me about my camping trip because FB made the connections just based on who is in the picture.

I don't need a FB account for this to be possible, deleting my account doesn't prevent this.

Zuckerberg doesn't need to send goons to my house. He already has surveillance on my camping trips.

> As long as we ensure that parties pay the cost of the externalities they create, [...]

Right but we don't do that. The rest of your argument collapses when this assumption doesn't hold.

> The alternative to this is a world in which the majority decides for everyone what is beneficial to society or not.

You mean like a democracy?

> Considering the competence of the average voter (and the competence of our government), I'd prefer to err on the side of non-intervention.

Woah so who gets to make choices for the unwashed masses?

> Last year I was tagged in a photo from a camping trip by a person I met on that trip. That person's brother's girlfriend used to work with a guy I know from a totally different circle of people. He asked me about my camping trip because FB made the connections just based on who is in the picture.

First, most of your ire should be directed at whoever uploaded the photo to Facebook. Second, please notice how far afield you had to go to try and shape this conversation into "Facebook is coercing me": a friend asked you about your camping trip.

Compare that to what happens if you don't do things that the government wants you to do. If I don't go to jury duty, men with guns will come to my home and put me in a cage. If I don't pay 40% of my wages to the government, men with guns will come to my home and put me in a cage. Even though I object to how that money is being spent (such as bombing people in the middle east or developing ever more horrifying weapons of war), I am coerced under threat of violence into funding such atrocities.

But please go on about how terrible it was that your friend asked you about your camping trip.

> You mean like a democracy?

Should a democracy vote on which vehicle we must all drive? Which movies we must all watch? Which jobs we must work? Of course not. Likewise for which businesses each of us patrons. The crowning achievement of our constitution isn't the form of representation (which mostly serves to prevent violent revolution), but the concept of human rights: No matter how much people want to vote for it, the government is forbidden from doing certain things to you.

When corporations effectively control customer choice and eliminate competition, then yes, a democracy should break up the corporation to restore a level playing field. US anti-trust laws that were fairly applied in the past are not being applied today. This is a position independent of whether a wealth tax is applied or not. Big companies have become far too big with mergers and anti-competitive practices - they need to be broken up - for the very health and continuance of precious capitalism.
> If a company does pay back investors, that almost always means that it has contributed to society on net.

It sounds like you're saying that profit is all that matters and you can't contribute to society without making a profit.

> It sounds like you're saying that profit is all that matters and you can't contribute to society without making a profit.

Those who advocate for a wealth tax seem to only care about money too, don't they? Why taxing wealth in particular? How about "taxing" beautiful and healthy? There's a huge prettiness gap in this country.

I simply argued that in a system where certain failure modes are ameliorated, a company that creates more value than it captures is a net benefit to society.

If I argued that strawberry cake was a net benefit to society, would you dismiss my views as "all that matters is strawberry cake and you can't contribute to society without making strawberry cake"? Of course not. So too for economics.

How do we decide the value of companies' externalities if not through a system of government?
The facebook not forcing you to create account does not sound that good on a day when they force Oculus users to log in with one. Unless you live totally off the grid you are forced to interact with corporations and at every turn they have more power.
"If people don't pay for a company's products, that company will go out of business."

The problem is that capitalism has broken down.

20% of publicly traded companies are zombies. Their earnings are below what they need to pay INTEREST on their debt.

Government is bailing out inefficient companies, whose assets would otherwise be sold off to more efficient operators.

> Inequality in your country has risen dramatically the past 30 years.

Why should I or anyone care?

In case you're actually serious and not just trolling...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_economic_inequality

>> Inequality in your country has risen dramatically the past 30 years.

> Why should I or anyone care?

Are you inside or outside the gated community?

Because historically, excessive inequality doesn't end well for the haves.
They are usually fine. The inequality was way higher for most of the history and hungry peasants are no match for the army. We just remember the cases when the revolution won because it’s a good story. And the result was usually worse conditions for the poor.

I’m afraid that social equality peaked in XX century. Automation makes imposing social order so much easier, we might be stuck with this one for a while.

Actually, american income inequality is worse than the income equality right before the french revolution
Those hungry peasants weren't educated. You have far more bright people in the 99.9% today than in the 0.1% cream at the top.

Unless you decide on complete and utter genocide, An Army is utterly no match for clever people who will utilise every inch of their ingenuity in guiding riots, carrying out guerilla warfare with committed assassins targeting the 0.1% (and their families).

And a nation who chooses to kill its citizens 'en masse via its military forces will not be a nation for very long. There will be civil war.

Without shared prosperity, a nation will shatter very soon. A revolution doesn't need to "win" for the prosperous to loose their lives by the million-fold.

This also has been proven in history.

Because you guys keep yapping about how you love america, and that should include loving your fellow countrymen?
If you really can think of no reason, just ask Marie Antoinette.
Only the envious care. They try to justify it by conflating poverty with inequality.
4 - Spain, Norway, Switzerland, and Belgium. I don't think it has stopped very wealthy people living in Switzerland or Norway in particular - but also I'm not sure how significant revenue it raises for the state.

I think it's becoming quite clear though that we need some more taxation on capital, particularly the rent-seeking kind, and more levelling of the playing field particularly in the field of education, which is primarily funded through taxes.

Switzerland has a wealth tax, but it offers an interesting option for wealthy people - lump-sum taxation based on cost of living rather than wealth and income: https://home.kpmg/ch/en/blogs/home/posts/2020/04/lump-sum-ta...

So, their wealth tax is just for their "normal" earners. Don't glorify it or ignorantly use it as an argument.

Lump-sum tax only applies to foreigners, not Swiss nationals. Swiss wealth tax might be somewhat leaky, but still accounts for a non-trivial amount of tax revenue. https://voxeu.org/article/wealth-taxation-swiss-experience

I'm aware of Swiss taxation differences between different cantons, as well as the ability to negotiate your taxes. The OP mentioned wealth tax in Europe and my comment was in reference to that.

I'm personally not sure wealth tax is the best way to tax capital, but I wouldn't rule it out either.

I must have hit a nerve to warrant accusation of ignorance.

Norway is not famous for it's innovation or industry - much less than equally-populated Denmark and twice-as-populated Sweden with which it shares most culture, weather, genetics (and essentially also language). Neither are Belgium or Spain, and Switzerland, though more established, is no industrial powerhouse.

I do not claim that this is a result of the wealth tax, but it definitely doesn't attract innovators and industrialists.

The Netherlands too as far as I know?
People in the USA somehow think that having a huge amount of loosers in society will turn out ok.

Enjoy your ever growing prison population, crime, unemployment and inequality.

But hey! You can become the next Bezos! Isn't that grand? Freedom baby!

You don't help losers by knocking down the winners. Cutting off Usain Bolt's legs isn't going to make you run any faster.
1) Framing it as "winners" and "losers" is entirely the problem. It's a pretty poor mindset when you equate getting rich with "winning" while ignoring everything else, including factors that lead to people getting rich in the first place.

2) A footrace (and sports in general) is a really poor metaphor for economics & tax policy. A better metaphor is pruning trees in a forest so that smaller ones actually get enough light to grow instead of withering away on the floor.

The forest metaphor implies that people with wealth get it by taking it away from someone else. That isn't the case. Bezos' wealth, for example, comes from the fact that he owns ~13% of Amazon, the company he founded. He didn't steal those shares from someone else. They were created out of nothing when he started the company. They only became valuable because it turned out that the company did things that many people found very useful.

You aren't going to "prune away" shares from Bezos and have more wealth magically filter onto the masses from the heavens. Wealth doesn't stream in from some outside source and some greedy people just grab more of it than others. People make it themselves. Making it harder for people to do so is going to result in less wealth, not more.

It comes from killing the offline retail (this is technological shift, so it might not be a good idea to stop it) and being both a marketplace and a player in that marketplace. Coupling with a highly profitable AWS so they can undercut the remains of competition does not help. Decline of American retail produced orders of magnitude more “losers” than switch from coal to natural gas which grabbed so much attention.
You realize that Amazon stole market share from all kinds of other retailers, right?

Also, you're completely misinterpreting the metaphor to suit your own goals. Wealth redistribution demonstrably benefits society as a whole when said society has as many fundamental issues as the US does when it comes to basic standard of living (healthcare, education, living wage, etc.). You're making the exact same argument as people who think income tax shouldn't exist because taking some portion of income away from high earners magically makes them want to earn less. This is, of course, also demonstrably false and completely irrational.

It stole it? The market share was the legal property of those retailers? How? Where can I purchase some market share?

A company like Sears was well positioned to compete with and crush a fledgling Amazon if they had had the foresight and wherewithal to do it. They didn't, so they lumbered on doing the same thing they always did as the world changed around them and they eventually became irrelevant.

Other companies like Wal-Mart and Best Buy adapted and have remained competitive. It has nothing to do with sneaky Amazon burgling market share that is somehow the rightful property of someone else. That's not how that works. Amazon won the market share by doing a better job of serving the market.

> A footrace (and sports in general) is a really poor metaphor for economics & tax policy. A better metaphor is pruning trees in a forest so that smaller ones actually get enough light to grow instead of withering away on the floor.

By that standard, a legit analogy in that case would still be basketball. Let's cut legs a bit to everyone taller 6' so that shorter ones actually get enough opportunity to score, instead of them abandoning this amazing sport and spending their days at office in a hope to get wealthy by their economic skills one day.

And there you go still using sports metaphors. Life is not a competition. Treating it like it is generally leads to bad outcomes for both individuals and societies.
You're the one who brought up the forest metaphor, where plants compete for light.
That's the thing, a bit of tax won't knock anyone down. Using that money to provide more equal access to opportunity creates more winners.

Running doesn't require much money, so a lot of people can do it and therefore you can get someone as insanely good as Bolt. If running required startup capital of $100k, would we have Bolt?

Healthcare, education and a safe environment does require a lot of money in the USA. Specifically, it requires you to be born in a family that has it already. If not, you are born with your legs cut off, but if you work really really really hard, you can be one of the lucky few who make it out, and compete with those born with two legs. It's just an extremely uneven playingfield.

That's exactly why it's not a good metaphor. The wealthy aren't especially talented, and redistributing their wealth does make everyone else faster.
This would’ve been a great opportunity to share your unique expertise on the history, efficacy, or real mechanisms of tax laws that us non-lawyers aren’t privy to. E.g. comparative analysis of property taxes, which are wealth taxes but limited to one asset class.

In retort, these companies are started by young risk takers, many of whom have a safety net. A set of redistributive policies could expand that volume to folks who are arbitrarily excluded.

A property tax is different from a wealth tax for several reasons. Wealth is constantly created and destroyed. Land, not so much. Wealth can be easily moved around the world. Land can't. Wealth can be hidden to evade taxes. Land is hard to hide.

These differences mean that a tax on wealth tends to encourage wealth flight, tax evasion, etc, while a tax on property tends to encourage more productive use of the land. For example: An empty lot in the middle of a city would be taxed based on its value, which would be quite high. The owner would be incentivized to either build something that creates value or sell it to someone else who would do the same.

> a tax on wealth tends to encourage wealth flight, tax evasion, etc

A tax on income tends to encourage inequality, tax-advantaged income schemes, tax evasion, etc. Also, you didn't actually refute the parent poster's point that property tax is a subset of wealth tax.

Taxes like this appear to be quite unpopular though, right? You would expect this to help solve issues in, say, California's tech areas but I think many would agree that it hasn't happened. I'd be curious about whether a result like that is inevitable or just how it turned out this time.
Thanks for sharing. I don't expect to convince you but I want to make my opposing view clear.

For me the most important benefit of a wealth tax is eroding the wealth of billionaires. This is important because having that much money gives you _power_ in our society comparable to elected officials, but without any comparable accountability. If you have a billion dollars, you can employ two hundred people from your _personal wealth_ at $100k for fifty years each. Or, if you prefer, 2500 people for a four-year term. (This ignores the resources you have influence in deploying in business, though at least in that case there are other stakeholders. It also ignores connections.) This is a great deal of power, comparable to being an elected official, all the more so because elected officials are often constrained by politics. In my view, the existence of such a powerful and unaccountable interest group can only be a threat to democracy. Other commenters have outlined particular ways that this class has achieved its political goals in the USA. The class of billionaires poses such a threat that I would seriously consider giving up the IT revolution of the last fifty years to be rid of it.

First they came for Jeff Bezos, and I did not speak out...
I really appreciate this voice of reason and would further like to add a few points. As a tax paying citizen in my country i think that taxes are needed for the upheaval of the country as a whole in an "aggregate fashion". So my question is that even if a country implements wealth tax how is that money going to benefit or trickle down to the lower strata of the society? Do we just add more social benefits which i am against as if you just take money from people and redistribute you are essentially becoming a socialist economy.

Another question that arises here is if the discussion is happening because the tax collected is not sufficient currently? If that is the case then a proper solution would be to and i hate to say this increase the tax rates for everyone. The number of billionaires the people want to tax are essentially pretty low and in a country based economy where there are pretty large numbers haggling away their 1 percent wont really make a difference to a big country.

The issue with wealth tax is that it focusses on a particular well off section of society and that particular section of society is actually just being targeted because they are wealthy. The thing people take for granted is the number of jobs and employment they generate and the services they provide. They actually are so well off that i worry if someone would be able to stop them if they just decide to leave?

Its rather mundane to say that the wealth is not trickling down. These people are generating wealth. Why do you think US is the biggest world economy? Hint: its because of these billionaires we love to hate.

just my 2 cents.

Thanks for coming back to share your perspectives.

While I agree that AB5 stifles freedom and innovation, it just doesn't compute for me that a wealth tax (especially the example of 1% over 50mm) would damage the spirit of freewheeling invention, creation, and capitalism.

As an entrepreneur, I feel much more stifled by FAANGs or regulation than the idea I might be taxed at less than my real rate of return one day.

I agree the spirit of the valley is on the decline, and part of that is due to things like AB5, but it feels more like the tech giants are just new giants, like those of the 70s, and will trend towards preservation of establishment and gradual decline as always.

A wealth tax just seems orthogonal to all that.

I want to meet you.