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It's absurd I have to reply with this: Climate change continues to be seen as debatable because climate change models keep being corrected past the degree of correction most people understand invalidates similar models in other fields of science. So, using a pharmaceutical as an example: If Pfizer published findings that stated an HBP pill permanently reduced blood pressure by a specific amount after 60 days, then four years later came out and corrected that to 10 days, most people would be concerned that the extra 50 days of treatment carried significant risk of lowering blood pressure too far, and would ask whether Pfizer did enough to prevent such a significant risk of lowering blood pressure too far. And almost everyone would be more cautious about taking other Pfizer medications. Makes sense, right? That's what people do with climate science models in the general public. When someone asserts confidence in a model one year then publishes a significant correction to that model the next, skepticism over the integrity of all of their models is reasonable. If they messed up so bad here, we need to know whether it's isolated in scope. That said, the entire model was about speed. No one inferred a general direction of decline. They asserted high confidence in a model that, given additional data, completely changed. There is a rule of logic in data that as new records are added, each record becomes an increasingly smaller proportion of the overall dataset, and save for extreme anomalies, the expected rate of change for the model given each additional record declines on a curve. That is why random sampling of a population is used instead of the population. After a certain number of records, the relevance of any N new records are insignificant to the output. If the addition of new data completely threw off their model, even as a time series, they're overfitting or underfitting, but either way, they are not going to be trusted as a source of reliable information. What I'm saying is we need to stop doing that. If we talk about the models as just being marginally accurate, we're more likely to stem attempts to debate the entirety of climate science. Regardless of how smart or stupid you think those who debate climate change are, they do influence barriers to act. |
No, because it's an entirely different scenario. It's not at all similar to making some blood pressure medication.