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by pandaman 2130 days ago
Most of H-1Bs are indeed from AOS or COS process, however there are still 15% of consular processing applications according to the USCIS [1]. It's rational to assume that 15% of selected in the lottery were also consular processing and as they dropped out it would create ~13000 vacant spots (15% of 65K+20K total cap).

1. https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/U...