[s1t5]

> 71% chance of victory, which is anomalously low chance given current polling data.

Your question is based on 71% being low, which I don't think it's true. It's way way higher than I would expect or predict and certainly higher than what the polls indicate. Have a look at 538's methodology for creating it and also look at Nate Silver's article on how you shouldn't count Trump out yet.

As far as Taleb goes - who cares, the more people ignore him, the better.

[aaron695]

> Your question is based on 71% being low, which I don't think it's true.

Assuming I got my maths correct the betting market has him at ~ 65%

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presiden...

[mcintyre1994]

538 are claiming that their model has a lower percentage for Biden than others (random example - Economist has Biden at 87% currently) because they're considering more than just the polls. The implication seems to be that their prediction is actually lower than their analysis of the polls would indicate.