[manomanowicz]

Tesla's current vehicle portfolio doesn't suit the current market trends in Europe. Only the Model 3, S, and X are currently available. Two are sedans which are losing market share to SUV type vehicles and the model X SUV is very expensive for most consumers.

Most vehicle sales in Europe are in the B or C car segment (relatively small vehicles by North American standards). Increasingly the sales of B and C cars are moving away from hatchback models to CUVs (crossover utility vehicle) models which offer a raised seating position and more interior space. Tesla offer nothing in these segments which the likes of Volkswagen, Hyundai and Renault do.

The Model Y should do well once it launches but I can imagine competitors who can offer a lower price albeit compromising the range doing better in this segment. Given that the distances driven in Europe are on average lower, the additional range Tesla can offer is not massively compelling unless they can undercut their rivals on price.

On a slight tangent, the other threat is the increasing hybridisation of powertrains in Europe. Due to EU rules on the EU fleet -wide average Co2 levels of 95 gCo2/km coming into effect from 2021, vehicle manufacturers are now offering hybrid options on many name plates to reach this target. These PHEV and FHEV hybrid powertrains come at a significantly lower price compared with full electric vehicles with the benefit of short range electric driving only mode. Previously PHEV and FHEV were separate name plates which had unique (read: polarising) designs. Now PHEV and FHEV are pretty much available in all C car and above class vehicles in body styles not dissimilar from their combustion powertrain counterparts. These hybrid powertrains offer the short range electric only range consumers want for everyday driving with the potential for long range driving using the combustion engine all with no threat of range anxiety.