| Well, look at it this way: you left your home in the morning for work, went to lunch, went back to work, met a friend for coffee, dropped by the office to pick up your stuff, then got home and found you didn't have your wallet. You know that, in the past when you lost your wallet, you dropped it somewhere or you left it behind somewhere. However, because you are a free individual and because the universe is full of possibilities (including the event that the quantum froth poofed your wallet away and created an identical one in your hedge), you can do practically anything now in search of your wallet. Do you: * Retrace your steps to see if your wallet is anywhere along the path * Call your mother and see if she has your wallet * Begin a global wallet-hunt in case the wallet was transported to Cuba Like most people you have an intuitive understanding of what to do: Given limited resources you should allocate them in order of decreasing likelihood of success. Most things do not lead to life. Our prior on "There is silicon-potassium self-replication on Charon" is pretty low because our prior on "X self-replication" is pretty low for most things. Try it out. Suggest an alternative and honestly set your priors on it, then condition those priors on the evidence that you have seen on Earth, and the limited evidence from the Moon and Mars. Now look at those posteriors for your alternative and compare it with the kind of life we know. Almost certainly microscopic, but if it isn't, you should publish. |