[fuoqi]

>it very well might be

Nope. The story with "Russian mercenaries" is clearly aimed at creating a "besieged fortress" image to convince citizens that country needs a "strong leader" and stability. Before every election there is some kind of an external threat, which gets forgotten soon afterwards. Previously it was the West, now it's Russia.

Russia is less skillful at inducing and controlling street protests, so it usually sees it as an attempt by West to topple current government and install a more dependent one. And since none of the opposition candidates are visibly more pro-Russian than Lukashenko (which is a "known evil" for the Russian government), it makes scenario of Russia inducing those protests even less likely. I bet that in the following days Russia will accept the election results and will not condone suppression of protests too much,

[sam_lowry_]

During Covid-19, Belarus became a kind of international aviation hub. Those mercenaries were on there way to Middle East as part of the private armies Russia sends to places like Lybia. Even Russian government officials acknowledged that, althouth this makes them look bad internationally.