[m0zg]

It's an uneasy relationship, largely by design. If Lukashenko gets too friendly with Russia, Russia will not cut Belarus the hydrocarbon deals that Belarus has been getting forever, which would plunge a lot of people there further into poverty and decimate the economy. There will also be pressure to form a union of some sort, which would mean Lukashenko would lose full control over billions of dollars he's pinching off of in Belarus today (IIRC he basically owns all of telecom in the country). So Lukashenko has to threaten the bear a bit so to speak, by also getting friendly with the West, or at least pretending that he's going to if negotiations do not succeed. He's playing both the West and Russia against each other. If he gets too friendly with the West, however, Russia will take Belarus. It cannot afford to not have buffer states around it or NATO bases within strike distance of its population centers, for obvious geopolitical reasons. Belarus is one of those buffer states.

[Johnjonjoan]

So Russia could well be supporting the opposition (who I imagine will become closer to the EU if in power) so they then have a reason for Russia to take Belarus?

[m0zg]

Russia will do whatever it needs to do to prevent Belarus from affiliating itself militarily or economically with the West. Whether it's being BFFs with Lukashenko, or "supporting opposition", or partitioning Belarus, or taking it whole - all of those options are on the table. Which one will be chosen will depend on the situation. Fundamentally Russia would like to have Belarus as a part of some union (cultural affinity is very strong between the two countries, and Belarussian and Russian people consider themselves to be ethnically very close; to a Russian eye Belarussian language looks like Russian with deliberate and funny grammatical mistakes), but if it can't, it's quite happy to have it as a buffer state. What it can't have are NATO bases in Belarus. Same as it can't have NATO bases in Ukraine or NATO bases in Crimea. If you'd like to understand why, just take a look at the map with population density overlaid.

[monetizeinfo]

Well explained!