[photophotoplasm]

I have trouble believing even "normal people" will want to use the tablet for anything except casual use. The desktop computer's monitor/keyboard/mouse setup is too efficient to be fully replaced by the touch screen.

Not saying that tablets won't find their own niche, but they aren't suited for heavy workloads that increasingly large numbers of "normal people" need to do on computers.

The biggest legacy of tablets is going to be how the ideas behind them influence desktop computers. I'm expecting most consumer operating systems to become more "appliance-like" and more tied to services provided by their developers. The success of iOS makes it almost inevitable that this model will be ported to the desktop.

[jpravetz]

Correct. I have two 'normal' people in this house, and neither of them could or would get their work done on today's iPad. They are on Macs. For them, and myself as IT support person, the most interesting feature of the iPad might be the app management model and anything that makes maintaining the OS and applications (not just 'apps'), plug-ins and other resources (eg. fonts) easier.

[gnaffle]

For what _most_ people actually do, which is email, browsing and word processing and other productivity work, I'm having trouble believing that a tablet won't work equally well.

Maybe future tablets will be larger than 10" or support multiple displays, or multiple tablets working together, or maybe with external keyboards added, but except for niche tasks (graphic design which is often mouse/pen based) or CAD, I think they are a big step forward. That doesn't mean that advanced users won't stick to the desktop interface.

People said the same thing when the mouse became popular and the keyboard / command line interface dominated. I still use the command line interface every day because it's very efficient at what I do, but I do acknowledge that most people nowadays never will.

[ugh]

I think many normal people use their PC at home much, much longer for "casual use" than for work. So, I would reverse your assessment, the PC will keep its niche for the odd non-casual use at home but tablets will absolutely dominate when it comes to what people use home computers for the most, casual things.