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by acqq
2141 days ago
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> Its still good news, and it still means that herd immunity is easier and faster to achieve It is not even clear it's "good news", it doesn't "still mean" at all, read carefully under "Edit 2" of my parent post. It can also mean that it will take longer. R0 must be reevaluated, and threshold is f(R0). We don't even know the "correct" function for the threshold, even less which people contribute in which way. We don't know how much were infected up to now, the high numbers weren't random samples, prevalence in global population is much lower than in a few hot spots where a lot of deaths happened. "Math is hard." Immunology is complex. |
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I'm at the point of concluding: "All R0-based models are useless for a disease like this." The true dynamics are far too complex, and this assumption that we can conclude anything by plugging linearly-varying (or constant!) parameters into a trivially non-linear model is absurd.