This experiement's point is clear and identified in the article. This is pitched as an alternative to going to a cinema and it is priced lower than the cost of bringing a family there.
If it works, and it may do quite well, indeed, it will be a massive blow to cinemas but we need to keep in mind that these are not normal times and people currently have a strong incentive to stay home.
That's the thing. These are not normal times so "Mulan on Streaming" is not competing with "Mulan in the cinema" or any other movie in the cinema. You either watch it or you don't.
This movie is targeted at tweens/teens and the FOMO effect will be big. So if you have a tween in the house that wants to see the movie, you will pay those 30$. Not to mention the tweens who will be more than willing to shell out their own pocket money for it.
It is a mass-market price because, as said, people are willing to pay that to watch new movies, but in cinemas.
The question is whether people are willing to pay the same or a bit less (of course I'm thinking in terms of US/Western Europe prices) to watch new movies at home rather than in cinemas.
At the moment perhaps, but in general I am not sure because I think people go to cinemas not only for the movie but for the whole experience.
But I'm sure that the cunning people of Disney have factored the fact that these are not normal times in the pricing of this specific movie at this specific moment in time, and they'll see how it goes.
Families could group together (A rents the movie, B provide a big screen, C brings the popcorn). That would lower the cost and increase the “experience” part.
Here in the UK it is currently illegal to invite people at home and people are welcome to call the police if they see a neighbour do just that.
At some point if governments do not put restrictions in place and enforce them, and if people cannot be bothered to follow them or to be reasonable then there is little we can do...
I think they are testing the limits here. There is certainly a point beyond which the "willingness to pay" disappears and the movie becomes financially non-viable.
They could perhaps accept pre-orders to judge this and then introduce special deals, tie-ins, etc. to sweeten the deal if needed.
If it works, and it may do quite well, indeed, it will be a massive blow to cinemas but we need to keep in mind that these are not normal times and people currently have a strong incentive to stay home.