[Retric]

It’s only over short time periods that gold might look like a good investment. Inflation adjusted gold is flat over the last 40 years. That’s a real ROI of 0 from 1980 to 2020. Which means for every good investment someone else lost money.

Now it’s currently above the historic average so you do get 1% real returns from 1900 to 2020. But, stop in say 2010 and things look even worse.

[jkhdigital]

This is the best chart I've encountered for such comparisons: https://www.longtermtrends.net/stocks-vs-gold-comparison/

There are extended periods when gold absolutely crushes everything, and periods when it is totally flat (or worse). In the long run, yes, it is a poor investment because it is an inert metal. But for certain periods of time it is absolutely a great alternative to bonds and equities.

[Retric]

Look at the bottom chart, gold got crushed in that time period when you include dividends. The top chart is effectively meaningless by excluding them as you can’t invest in the S&P 500 without gaining dividends.

As to gold having positive returns in some window, sure but if you can time the market you can make money investing in anything. It’s doing the timing that’s difficult not looking for windows in historic data.