Nitpicking, the pandemic was hardly a black swan. People around the world have predicted it since forever, it was only semi-black swan in the amount of preparation for and willingness to deal with it that the US mustered.
I don't get this. Then no crisis is ever a black swan, as we're always expecting the next one. Financial crises, pandemics, meteorites, terror attacks? All expected.
A black swan must be an event that is unpredictable in the sense that it happens suddenly with little warning signs in the immediately preceding period.
A black swan must be an event that is unpredictable in the sense that it happens suddenly with little warning signs in the immediately preceding period.