[kristopolous]

The right advice is "don't use a leveraged fund unless you want to be involved and look at the market every day"

I've made good money on them as well, but I shuffle money in and out frequently.

It's not a good strategy unless you really want to study things.

[arcticbull]

That’s true in general, but this strategy is basically set it and forget it (rebalance quarterly for best results), and it works because it’s been carefully balanced to offset decay.

[rayuela]

how do you offset the decay?

[arcticbull]

It's all in the post ("Don't you know that leveraged ETFs are only intended to be held for one day?" section) but there's something we need to clear up before we start.

(1) What people refer to as "decay" is just the way the the daily exposure works on these ETFs. To quote the article:

"Let's say over five days the daily returns of the index are +1%, -2%, +3%, -4%, +5%, and you start with $100."

"At the end of the five days your $100.00 becomes $102.76."

"Now let's use a 3X leveraged ETF. Ignoring ER and other costs, the daily returns are +3%, -6%, +9%, -12%, +15%."

"At the end of the five days your $100.00 becomes $106.80."

6.80 is not 3X 2.76, and it's because down days leave you with less exposure the following day, so you need a bigger up day than the preceding down day to make up for it. However, as the article points out, this dynamic works for you in ETFs that exhibit positive momentum. Since "stocks always go up" -- at least the S&P always goes up over time, so far -- this dynamic works to your favor and the total return of UPRO to date has been 5X the return of SPY.

(2) UPRO and TMF are uncorrelated, and so the positive momentum of SPY causes UPRO performance to exceed 3X, and offset some of the lower-than-3X performance of TMF over time. For the record since 2017, the performance of TMF is 2X that of TLT, give or take.

(3) Further, the way this makes money is actually when the S&P drops 10%, UPRO drops 30%. As people flee assets, they buy treasuries, pushing TLT up 6-7%, which causes TMF to go up 20%. Then at rebalancing time, you sell TMF and use it to buy UPRO, so you sell the 3X winner, and buy the 3X loser at a deflated price. When prices normalize, the extra shares on the losing end in conjunction with positive momentum (and the fact you've reduced the size of your winner before it falls) put you much further ahead than if you weren't using leveraged ETFs.

This strategy makes money on volatility, and should be agnostic to market performance. It actually held up really well during March.

[kristopolous]

Part of what I do is something I'll call "pile of reserve" investing. I'll hold like $X in some leveraged fund but I have 50x in cash on the side so if things go south I can dollar average my way to profitability. This also requires constantly winnowing down profitable investments to insulate from risk. I've been doing this for about 3 years. About a 3x return on my current holdings, which is about 50% of the maximum I've had in.

This will very likely make less money but really, I can pay all my (admittedly very modest) bills with my portfolio and have returns left over + my actual day job income so honestly, why do I care?

I come from a privileged background and I lived that life. I didn't like it and have no interest in returning to it.

People have to find the strategy and mix that works for them.