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I think you hit the nail on the head, with the salient point here being that in the near future "creative" things will be automated first (see Image GPT, Jukebox, etc. Google has 100 billion dollars cash and countless TPUs, best engineers, infra, etc - they could probably replicate results far better than each of these OpenAI projects within a few years). One of the things that got me into ML research was the notion that we could automate a lot of the hard work humans do every day (agriculture, cooking, desk jobs, etc) so that humans could do things that were uniquely theirs & interesting, that were human, that were beautiful... Unfortunately it turns out that classical music and waxing poetic are easily generative in an enjoyable way. In the most ironic fashion possible, it turns out that the very thing we do when we conduct ML research, what you call the "logical domain", is one of the only things that stays human-only in the foreseeable future. GPT-3 and other projects seem to drive hype cycles in the tech community and convince people like Elon Musk that the AGI revolution is near. But I think recent progress is just another example of machine learning models being able to generalize on super large datasets, even if it's the biggest model so far. It's not clear to me that larger models will solve this in the limit; take the way GPT3 fails on addition past a certain number, and the fundamental inability for transformers to learn certain algorithms. It is certainly still possible for this type of large dataset, large model style of ML to make human life better in many ways - like Tesla is trying to do with self driving cars, or Covariant with automating Amazon-like jobs. But I think when it comes to tackling the hard problems of true intelligence, we're missing a dimension somewhere. |
> Unfortunately it turns out that classical music and waxing poetic are easily generative in an enjoyable way
On the contrary, I would say that generating convincing and original classical is an incredibly hard (if not impossible) task. All the current music AI projects give results which may sound “good“ to a casual listener, but they sound horribly wrong to any educated listener. The reason is that AI can only imitate the surface, but completely misses to recognize/synthesize larger structures. This might be ok for some background noodling in a TV drama, but not for the concert stage.
Finally, we rarely perceive art works in isolation. We know and appreciate the fact that a certain work has been created by a certain person in a certain time.