[lrnStats]

This is the first person/company that actually has a realistic (still optimistic) Coronavirus timeline.

Prior to this, everyone had unrealistic "fall 2020", then pushed to "January 2021".

This still assumes a vaccine and production of the vaccine will be finished in under a year.

A more realistic estimate seems to be 2022.

I don't understand why this is so hard, you can look at pandemic physics to know that Coronavirus is not going anywhere. And you can look at previous vaccine and medical production to understand how long it takes to make hundreds of millions or billions of vaccines.

Are most people willfully ignorant?

[tmountain]

I think it's such a hard pill to swallow that it's easier for a lot of people to incrementally move the goal posts from a psychological perspective. Nobody wants to suggest 2022--lest it become real from the mere suggestion that this is the case. Everyone keeps talking about a vaccine, but I don't see a lot of people facing the realities of what will be required for the vaccine to succeed (70% of the population inoculated). Nobody wants to talk about the potential for a less than desired durability in the vaccine (i.e., the scenario where you might need to be vaccinated 4x per year). All of this just seems to be too soul crushing and horrific to make it part of the regular dialogue, and I understand why--the reality is brutal.

[lrnStats]

But increments cause bad decisions to be made.