[klelatti]

Interesting analysis. We have talk of a "Polo" shaped recovery in the UK. Polo is a 'mint with a hole' - so a rebound on the periphery but nothing in the middle.

One important point that I don't think is mentioned at all is the impact of Canary Wharf. Lots of institutions have moved out of the City and into Docklands in search of lower rents and bigger floorplans. Expect to see some move back if rents fall.

I do think that we are possible that we see some sort of rebalancing of the City - the statistic that there are very, very few residential properties is telling and the City is actually a very pleasant place to live - its pedestrian friendly, has lots of shops and good cultural venues (eg the Barbican) but is almost deserted at the weekend.

Disclosure: long central London property (my home).

[zwischenzug]

Author here. I adore the Barbican and dream of retiring there. My analysis may reflect wishful thinking.

The CW point is an interesting one. Most people that work there don’t like it so I could see a move back in for high value work.

[klelatti]

I hope you manage to fulfill your dream!

The relationship between CW and the City is interesting. I have a theory that the insurance bit of the City has tended to stay there (e.g. in the area around Leadenhall) because it is more bespoke, less automated and hence face to face contact is more important. Whereas banks have moved to CW for lower rents and larger floorplans (which are seen as desirable for certain activities). I expect that the larger banks will probably stay in CW but as you say some professional services firms could move back.