[spiffytech]

The fallacy here is assuming a startup's luck stat is constant. But there's this notion of a "luck surface area", that you can deliberately increase your chances of getting lucky by e.g., hiring people who have a track record of success in a broad range of circumstances instead of narrow, or by networking with diverse, successful industry leaders instead of scrappy unproven founders with no resources.

Seeking advice from successful founders can be useful because some of what they did likely increased their odds of getting lucky, and following their advice could boost your own luck stat, which is useful even if the particular stroke of luck your startup needs is totally different from your advisor's.

[ransom1538]

"Seeking advice from successful founders can be useful because some of what they did likely increased their odds of getting lucky,"

Apparently not. Look at a great incubator. They invest in new ideas all day. It's basically gambling.