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by _8091149529 2154 days ago
It's tempting to dismiss that write-up due to its incendiary style, but I find that many of its "factory floor" level insights ring true to me.

As an experimentalist, I would agree with the sentiment that the potential future applications of Quantum computing probably receive too much media attention, given the maturity level of existing technology.

The technical arguments as to why building a useful QC will be impossible are a bit more shaky.

First, the post seems to imply that the calibration effort scales with the number of gates in the algorithm. This is false. In reality, the number of interactions that need individual calibration is basically the number of qubit-qubit pairs exposed by the gate library. The most mainstream approach to error-corrected QC only uses nearest-neighbor interactions, and hence the scaling is linear.

Second, it is not clear to me why the number of computational basis states (2^N) is relevant to the engineering at all. Following this line of thinking, the recent Quantum supremacy result by Google already amounted to a mastery of 2^53 ~ 10^16 degrees of freedom.

Third, an argument is made that large-scale error correction will not work because of correlated errors, of unspecified nature. I think a claim like this should come with a mention of at least one concrete source of such errors, so that we could estimate its magnitude and potential severity. Note that such calculations are almost the essence of day-to-day work of a physicist.

In the absence of more detail, I can make a generic counterargument: Any phenomenon causing such correlated errors by definition affects multiple physical qubits at once, and will tend to be more macroscopic in nature. This is in contrast with the processes that limit the fidelity of one- and two-qubit operations, which is what the error-correcting code will take care of. Macroscopic disturbances are exactly the ones that we can attempt to shield against with clever engineering.

1 comments

John Martinis emphasized in his talks that they didn't observe any correlations between local errors in the Sycamore and the total error can be computed through the "high school probability theory" from the local errors. This pretty much silences deniers who used this totally made-up argument against quantum computing.
Continuing:

Google (or anyone else) hasn't shown an implementation of an error correcting code, so we do not have data points for a model-free "ruler extrapolation" of logical error rate vs. lattice size.

In fact, I think the Sycamore qubits were "pre-threshold", i.e. no error correction gain possible even in theory. I wonder if someone will correct/confirm me. I remember the readout fidelity was particularly poor.

Furthermore, I would argue that the large readout errors make the observed scaling of total error slightly less impactful.

But don't get me wrong, it's still a monumental achievement.

Yes, to an extent, but the case is not closed by any means. From memory, the logical error rate target is 1e-12. Clearly, quite a sizeable leap of faith is needed to extrapolate from the Martinis results to this value.