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by __blockcipher__ 2157 days ago
(1) Kawasaki-disease is not long-term risk. It's a disorder that goes away.

(2) Given your only argument against my statement of there being no theoretical basis is what I addressed in (1), there's not much for me to address here. So I'll throw it back at you: What long-term pathology has been observed in SARS-1?

It may be that we are using "long-term" in different senses. I don't consider 3 months to be "long-term". AFAIK most people raising alarm about (unfounded) long-term damage are implying either lifelong or at least years+, right?

(3)

> In the same comment you say "most people are dramatically overestimating COVID-19 risk," and then cite an article which says,

>> "Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) presents arguably the greatest public health crisis in living memory."

I don't see how these statements are mutually incompatible. It's possible for COVID-19 to be the most serious pandemic in over a century - which it is - and for people to still be overestimating the risk.

There is a study that surveyed people for their estimated COVID-19 risk which supports my claim; people in the 20-29 age group estimated their risk of death if infected at 2%. Think about that. That's at minimum a 50x overestimate.

Humorously, the older someone was the less they estimated their risk in absolute terms; young people reported higher chance of death than older people.

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