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by JumpCrisscross 2159 days ago
> I only want to spend a couple of hundred on long term options

Former options market maker. And honest question. Why?

Long-term options are tricky because theta and rho, the least intuitive components of the option pricing model, become significant as tenor increases. If you want to take a leveraged bet on the market, a margin account or leveraged ETF is safer.

2 comments

I have a good portfolio of stocks, and to be honest I want to bet a hundred or so here or there. I never buy lottery tickets or anything like that, but I feel like it's a good chance to take.

It has nothing to do with safe, and is about risk v reward.

the market underprices implied volatility on long term options, because it just doesn't know, which is an absolutely awesome.
What do you mean by underprice implied vol? I think what you mean is that vol is underpriced, not implied vol being underpriced. Implied vol is just a function of 4 factors known at at the time of the trade (underlyer spot price, option premium, option strike, time to expiry) and one unknown (risk-free interest rate over the lifetime of the option). Saying they've gotten implied volitility wrong implies they've mis-entimated the risk-free interest rate. I think instead you mean they under-estimate vol, not implied vol.