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by mikem170 2166 days ago
>Let me retire on a good pension at 60 like my grandparents all did.

My theory: The economic success of my grandfather, part of the post-WWII "greatest generation" in the U.S., was an anomaly.

After WWII the U.S. economy was experiencing unique boomtimes. They won the war with their economy intact, and were by far the most productive country on the planet.

Since then, besides reverting to the mean, globalism and information technology has changed everything.

My grandfather had a 4th grade education, retired from his job at a steel plant, and lived in three of four houses he owned in two states. That is simply not the way the world works any more.

From an economic perspective he was in the right place at the right time. A couple generations earlier he would have been a poor farmer. A generation or two afterwards he would have been a working-poor service worker.

Like I said, this is a theory of mine, that the economy of post-WWII American was an aberration and should not be considered the normal state of things. For those couple/few decades the U.S. was the factory and research powerhouse of the world, other manufacturing bases didn't exist or were rebuilding.

I welcome comments.

1 comments

I agree, and it's the same reason I take investment advice from all 50s/60s born with a huge grain of salt. "Put $10,000 in an index fund when you're 23 years old and you'll be a millionaire when you retire!" There are so many assumptions being made there that it boggles the mind. What if the economy doesn't grow 3% yoy for my entire life! What if it just... levels off?

Piketty pointed this out: in the early 1800s, authors would mention actual numerical dollar amounts paid for goods in books and plays. Because for all of prior history economic growth was a few basis points per year, at best. So a British pound earned in 1600 would be roughly comparable in value to one spent a hundred years later.