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by notahacker 2164 days ago
Cases are lower still or zero in many other places with far too few cases to have achieved herd immunity. The only plausible explanation is that containment measures have some effect.
2 comments

Every increase in the percentage of people with immunity reduces R0. At some point, even absent any other measures, the R0 would be below 1 just due to the number of people that are immune; herd immunity.

But in any case, the immunity level of the population reduces the need for other measures in order to stay below an R0 of 1.

There’s a massive spectrum of efficacy in the dozens of different suppression or containment policies that can be applied, combined with demographics and geography of the location being studied.

But in any case, the immunity level of the population is a downward force on R0 that, for example, will naturally keep daily cases lower in New York vs. Florida regardless of policy.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v...

The case rate has dropped faster as the restrictions have eased.

I think you're confusing cause and effect here...