| 100 $ / kWh battery packs. Or the range of the Semi, deemed 'physically impossible' by a Daimler exec. Let's see how that goes. Musk's whole point is this: much more things are technologically feasible, but most people / companies limit themselves within apparent constraints. As mentioned: he's a physicist. From a physics standpoint, only a small amount of things are actually impossible. Only the deepest fundamentals give rise to constraints, and only those are the constraints he accepts. Everything else is debatable. At least. Sure, money so that he can throw army of talented engineers at problems helps. But it's his whole point! If it's your goal and it's possible in principle, reach for it. Be it batteries, reusable rockets, autopilot. That's why he says that it's possible in principle to achieve level 5 autonomy without lidar (having worked with lidar as chief engineer at SpaceX) and that it's possible in principle to do brain-machine-brain communication of language or complex ideas within a decade. It might not work eventually. If so, it might be very well delayed for years. But there is a reason that ppl like Thiel or Palihapitiya say: never bet against Elon. Imagine Tesla actually rolling out level 5 autonomy within a year or two... |
Musk is constantly moving the goal post, so when he ultimately delivers something one day, people tend to forget how often he didn't deliver in the past. He seems to be the only one to get away with that.