It is and it isn't. I remember the first time I thought "this software is just X that everybody forgot about, reinvented again". That was 2005. Not coincidentally that was a decade after I started working as a sysadmin.
Venkatesh Rao says that there comes a point in your life when you realize things you thought were permanent are temporary, and things you thought were temporary are permanent; he uses "40" as a good rubric for that developmental stage. IT goes through many pendula, whether it be containerization vs. amalgamation, or thin clients vs. thick. What, over time, you learn to hold on to is the tools that have lasted decades and will probably continue to. Right now the pendulum is starting to swing back towards amalgamation, and it will probably swing back towards containerization again in another decade. Whatever the tech is at the time, it can be good to reconsider whether your views will have changed not on the technology, but on the larger pendulum it's riding.
I find it hard to parse anything meaningful from your comment, sorry. I don’t mean to be rude, perhaps blunt.
Please name what infrastructure technology has lasted decades, I am curious to know. If you try hard enough yes you can see it’s all cyclical, you can say, MULTICS was the OG cloud. OK, fine, but what use is that to be as a practical software developer building things? Perhaps with age you start seeing everything as being like something you’ve already seen so it’s not that exciting anymore?
> A decade is a long time in software engineering.
Is it?
Code I wrote literally 20 years ago is still running in production, and I get paid to work on an app with plenty of code around that was first committed in 2009.
If you build a system in k8s today, and it's a success, there's good reason to believe you'll be on k8s in 2030.
That’s pretty cool, really. I can’t really find studies on average software life time, so all I really have is anecdotes. I can’t imagine software running for that long on eg public clouds without any kind of major refactor considering how quickly technology changes today, and how aggressively cloud costs push companies to change. Specifically, I can see something like “Serverless” coming to maturity and completely changing the paradigm (again!) on how software is architected. But it’s possible I’m wrong and like you say, k8s will be around for much longer than I anticipate.
Venkatesh Rao says that there comes a point in your life when you realize things you thought were permanent are temporary, and things you thought were temporary are permanent; he uses "40" as a good rubric for that developmental stage. IT goes through many pendula, whether it be containerization vs. amalgamation, or thin clients vs. thick. What, over time, you learn to hold on to is the tools that have lasted decades and will probably continue to. Right now the pendulum is starting to swing back towards amalgamation, and it will probably swing back towards containerization again in another decade. Whatever the tech is at the time, it can be good to reconsider whether your views will have changed not on the technology, but on the larger pendulum it's riding.